Originally Posted by TRF
It's not anything like power. He turns Casey like singles into doubles with his speed. He turns normal doubles to triples with his speed. 66 career HR's in 6 seasons is not power. Stubbs has a low SLG. period. He has contact issues. period. Over the last 2 months his BA has hovered around .200.
Guys don't turn singles into doubles too often.... even the really fast ones. As for his BA over the last two months, its been unlucky. As for his batting average since May rolled around, you are right... but lets look at what he has done at the plate since then:
Line drive rate - 23%
Walk rate - 18%
Strikeout rate - 23%
BABIP - .293
So a guy with a 23% line drive rate is posting a .293 BABIP huh? Yeah, thats likely to be considered bad luck when his suggested BABIP should be at least .350 (BABIP= LD% + .120) and maybe even slightly higher considering his speed likely gives him an extra hit or two on an infield ground ball most guys wouldn't get. So yeah, his BABIP has been unlucky which coincides with an ugly average over that time.... but if Drew Stubbs can keep up a 23% line drive rate, an 18% walk rate and strike out 23% of the time he steps to the plate, he will be a successful player. Not even factoring in slugging percentage/batting average, those ratios over 500 PA would lead to roughly (using the suggested BABIP formula above) to a 90 walk and 115 strikeout season with a .386 OBP if he hit 0 HR. For every HR he hit, his OBP would go up just a little bit. If he continues doing exactly what he has done through May and June he will be fine as things go his way.
His LD% means squat right now. You pointed out Francisco as a guy on the Sarasota team with a higher LD%, but Francisco has a TON of power. With a modicum of patience at the plate, his OBP will gradually climb because he'll punish mistakes and pitchers will know that. Stubbs doesn't punish the ball. The question is can he learn to do that? Physically i believe he has the body for it. Not Jay Bruce or even Francisco power, but he needs to be a 15-20 HR threat soon, because this ain't the 80's and the Reds don't play on turf anymore.
No, his high LD% means that he is hitting the ball hard and that his average will reflect that as things begin to normalize themselves. Continue with a high LD% and you will continue seeing good numbers.