Re: Good Thread Idea on the Sun Deck--Clutch Project
I must say that I don't put any value in WPA either. I refuse to believe that a HR in the 1st inning should be worth possibly 10x less than a HR in the bottom of the 9th when the exact same number of runs are produced. That 9th inning homer didn't contribute any more to the win. The order and timing in which runs score is basically irrelevant, so long as the totals are what they are. Put another way, the value of the 9th inning HR is built on the events that led up to it -- yet the interaction effect is not distributed across the events, only assigned to the most recent one, making nearly every single plate appearance of increasing value.
It's like BA w/ RISP. Yes, it measures something and that something is sort of relevant, but I just don't see its utility. It doesn't tell me anything that increases my understanding of player value, past performance, or likely future performance.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 07-07-2008 at 11:19 AM.