It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:
20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.
Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).