Originally Posted by kpresidente
You're taking his RFg, not his RF/27. That's deceiving because a backup like Fontenot often bats once and gets credited with a game played. His RF/27 was only 0.4 chances below league average, not a full chance. Now, I don't believe that one out = 1/2 run, but even if I accept that, you're looking at 32 runs, not 81.
BTW - you really can't run the numbers this way because there are more TC in a game than outs...an assisted play results in 2 TC (1 assist, 1 PO) and only 1 out, so the run value of each TC is exaggerated. But it's OK for arguments sake....
Now, offensively, I don't know what the average SS produces, but a Fontenot/Keppinger platoon (8.05 RC/27) would net you about 90 more runs than Khalil Greene based on his 2008 (2.9), and about 60 more than his career figures (4.4).
Those were Fontenot's #'s for 2B, and you are talking about him at SS. Who knows how horrible he would be at SS? I don't want to find out. And I agree with you that these fielding stats are not the best way to figure out the value of a defender, but that is because fielding has so many side effects, like the ones I mentioned earlier, that you have ignored. Here is the list again.
Having a solid fielding SS results not just in less errors, or more plays made, it leads to less pitches being thrown by the pitchers, having a starter go deeper into games, using the bullpen less, letting pitchers have confidence in allowing the batter to make contact, less AB's for the opposing lineup which means that the best hitters hit less often, less stress on the rest of the defense, and so much more.
But let's use your number of 32 more runs given up on defense, which is more than generous.
Now let's address the offensive side. You talk about a Kepp/Fontenot platoon, but they both do well against lefties, so why platoon them? And does your Fontenot/Kepp platoon factor in that one will be batting against lefties and one against righties? If not, the numbers are meaningless. You just would have two guys to split time against lefties and no one to play against righties.
You say that you don't know the league average for SS for RC/27. I don't know it either, but they are meaningless, since RC/27 only shows what a hitter's value is above replacement value, which is not the same as above league average. And since you are talking about how many runs more than league average that he gives up, you need to use that same measure on offense.
So let's look at league average numbers for SS.
According to this THT article, http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/pr...-average-does/
the league average numbers for SS for 2007 are .270 .336 .422.
In 660 AB's that translates to 93 runs created.
Let's look at Fontenot's career stats. .290 .369 .457
In 660 AB's that translates to 111 runs created. Or 18 more runs created than a league average SS.
So if your very generous number of 32 runs given up more than a league average SS is true, than Fontenot barely makes up half the extra runs he gives over the extra runs he creates.