Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07
The biggest difference between Taveras and Furcal IMO is defense. Furcal is very much a defensive upgrade at SS and would probably gain the reds 25-35 runs depending on the type of season he has next year fielding. Taveras is an average defensive outfielder and adds no other benefit than his steals, which I believe that Furcal could come close to matching. I doubt Taveas steals 68 bases and only gets caught 7 times again, but he could. However, Taveras has consistently been around 75% when he steals and this year he was much more successful. Why? I am not sure. It could have been luck, it could have been situations with different pitchers or whatever. At any rate, I'm not going to bank on the fact that Taveras does something like that again. Also, Furcal is a much better hitter. His OPS is around .750+ minus his one bad year in '07. Taveras has never topped .750 in the OPS category and the one year he did, he was very lucky. His one good year, '07, was driven up by an extremely high BABIP. Taveras had a .370 BABIP with only a 16.9% LD percentage. His BABIP should have been roughly .290 which would have put his numbers in line with what he produced this year and '06. Now the one thing that BABIP doesn't plan for is speed so obviously Taveras could have beaten out some grounders in the hole or whatever, but I still see no way in which that could account for the huge discrepancy between the LD percentage and the BABIP.
To your posed question: the most important thing is how many times he is caught stealing. If he is caught 15 times than his steals don't even make an impact, not to mention I think that Chris dickerson could put up those numbers and we would not have to deal for Taveras. Plus I feel your stats are pretty optimistic for Tavers
I don't think the average or SB's are optomistic, as they are pretty much what he always gets. Maybe the OBP, but I really don't think it's by much, hell, even if you factor in his horrible 08 he still has a career OBP of .331. I don't think it's far fetched to think that he'll have an OBP of .340, especially in a good hitters park when he really should just be entering his prime. I'm not saying it's not a risk, but the reds aren't going to pay 13 million for Furcal, and basically what I'm saying is that he isn't Patterson 2.
I just know if they trade for him though everyone is going to say "OMG, we just got another Patterson!", when it really isn't true. If he just goes to his career norms he isn't that bad, he's not great, but it wouldn't be horrible.