Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07
Dunn is pretty darn good. He has a Career OPS of .899, not too many hitters in th majors right now can say that.
I don't think that anyone on this board is saying that Dunn is not good, in fact nearly all would agree that he is one of the most productive players in the league.
But the real argument is how good is he? And that is what REDblooded was saying, that Dunn is not as good as some people think.
This has been beaten to death on this board, but things are slow, so I will bring up the main points again.
1) His defense. He has gotten better, but for most of his career Dunn was a butcher in left. Now he just is not very good, which is about average for left fielders.
It is very difficult to know exactly how many missed plays Dunn is responsible for, but I would say that even now, he is probably worth around one a week, which is about 20-25 a season. Even at 20 missed plays, if they are worth .8 runs each according to Tango
then Dunn's defense costs the team around 15 runs a season. That's a big chunk. Even if it is just 10, that knocks him a notch in terms of his overall level of production he provides. He moves from a 4 win player to 3.5 or maybe even a 3 win player.
2) Not all OPS are equal. Dunn's high OPS is due to a large number of walks. While walks are great, they are not as valuable as hits. Most Saberheads agree that a walk is worth around 2/3 of a hit in terms of run production. So compare Dunn to Aramis Ramirez, who had a similar OPS last year, .898, but had 48 less walks and 38 more hits. That is about 12-15 more runs, with an almost identical OPS.
So just between his defense and high walk instead of hit total, Dunn is worth about 20-30 runs less than a player with the same OPS, but with better defense and a better BA.
Now to be honest, I like Dunn a lot, and think that if the Reds could sign him to a two year $25M, that would be great. But I think he will get at least 4 years, and that alone makes him not worth it. The Reds have too many good young hitters coming up. I think most of the people against signing Dunn would like him on the team, just not at his current market value.