Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_
Sorry, I just disagree. When a hitter with a BA driven OBP slumps...he's not "just making outs". Odds are, a player with a higher BA is able to put the bat on the ball. Those kind of players are just hitting them where they ARE when they slump. That can still advance runners. A player with a high walk rate...I guess when they slump they still walk at the exact same pace....riiiiiiight. Players don't walk more often and less often during a season. Nah, walkers are consistant.
You might want to put away the rolleyes emoticon. Over the last three seasons, by month, the correlation between Adam Dunn's monthly BA and IsoD (OBP minus BA) was -0.49 with an IsoD Standard Deviation of only .037. Dunn's two lowest IsoD months occurred when he hit .287 and .310. Dunn's three highest IsoD months happened when he hit .157, .217 and .161.
That's basically the "slump proofing" effect Ron's talking about and only once during any month did Dunn's OBP slip below .328. Only four times out of 18 months did Dunn produce an OBP lower than .352. BA-driven OBP players like Taveras don't have the ability to do that because they're doing nothing but making Outs when they slump. Ron's not wrong about this.