Originally Posted by SteelSD
You might want to put away the rolleyes emoticon. Over the last three seasons, by month, the correlation between Adam Dunn's monthly BA and IsoD (OBP minus BA) was -0.49 with an IsoD Standard Deviation of only .037. Dunn's two lowest IsoD months occurred when he hit .287 and .310. Dunn's three highest IsoD months happened when he hit .157, .217 and .161.
That's basically the "slump proofing" effect Ron's talking about and only once during any month did Dunn's OBP slip below .328. Only four times out of 18 months did Dunn produce an OBP lower than .352. BA-driven OBP players like Taveras don't have the ability to do that because they're doing nothing but making Outs when they slump. Ron's not wrong about this.
And that's pointing at ONE player. Dunn. I wasn't talking about one player or even two. But rather, in general. Dunn's walks were more consistant...he draws quite a few intentional walks (and even more intentional pitched around walks). Those don't have to do with plate discipline. Those have to do with his scary power and the fact that there was nobody surrounding him in the lineup that could effectively move a runner around. In general, walks fluctuate.