Originally Posted by Raisor
How about if I can show that 08 was just Willy returning to his norm?
Let me use a slightly different number, RC per 100 PA.
05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)
Where do you get your RC numbers? Hardball Times shows data that is much different than what you have presented. Consequently, I interpret it much differently.
Year RC PA RC/100 RC/600
2005 63 635 9.92 59.53
2006 65 587 11.07 66.44
2007 52 408 12.75 76.47
2008 47 538 8.74 52.42
Total 227 2168 10.47 62.82
His 2007 and 2008 production were both out of line w/ career norms, but the net effect of both years is close to his career average for RC.
This isn't the move I would have made, but the Reds have needed a legit flycatcher in CF for some time. I think Taveras brings good (potentially great) defensive attributes to the table. (1) He made a lot of out-of-zone (OOZ) plays in 2008, which suggests that he can cover a lot of ground. Adjusted for innings, he made 75 OOZ plays per 1,000 innings, whereas Reds CFers made 67. [note: there may be methodological problems with comparing OOZ data from players on different teams, so we need to be cautious here.] (2) He has one of the best outfield arms in the business. John Walsh is smarter than all of us, and his work suggests Taveras saved ~6 runs per 200 opportunities in each of 2007 and 2008.
The net effect of (1) and (2) above is that we should see a decline in extra-base hits and, by extension, big innings.
My biggest concern is Dusty's penchant for using CFer in the leadoff position. Taveras could be useful manufacturing runs toward the bottom half of the lineup, but he has no business leading off.