Originally Posted by Raisor
Norris Hopper has been WAY better on offense then Willy T in their careers.
In fact, Hopper's career numbers look alot like Willy T's career YEAR.
Willy T 2007
With more PA's Hopper would crash and burn, just like Willy T has. I'm just saying that the Reds already have a Taveras on the team.
Exactly. Tavares and Hopper have basically the exact same skill set. They make decent contact and run fast, but don't walk and don't hit for any power. They can only OBP at an acceptable level when they're bunting for singles at an unsustainable league-leading rate. And when they aren't doing that, they provide sub-replacement production.
For all the people who are saying "well, at least we're not going with Norris Hopper", you've got it backwards. We're going precisely with Norris Hopper; only we're guaranteeing him a spot on the 25 man roster for the next two years and our GM is stating that he's the solution to both our CF and leadoff problems.
Hopper's 2007 and Taveras' 2007 were frighteningly similar:
AVG/ OBP/ SLG BABIP BUH%
Hopper .329/.371/.388 .369 56.3%
Taveras .320/.367/.382 .371 64.4%
Both guys, in a partial season, put up a big batting average driven by an extremely high success rate bunting for base hits. Their isolated discipline and power were still pathetic. A dip in batting average, resulting from an expected regression in the success and/or frequency of bunting for base hits, would crater the rest of their production.
Because we realized Hopper's game was a house of cards and because he got hurt, he didn't get the opportunity to have his production tank. Taveras, because he was healthy, because he steal a base, and because he's a "proven vet" did get the chance. Predictably, his production fell off a cliff.
Walt's statement "He needs to get back to the way he was swinging the bat and getting on base a couple of years ago" is complete ignorance to the reality of how Taveras had a successful season. It's wishcasting at its most irresponsible. 2007 wasn't a peak production season due to the confluence of skill and experience during his late 20's. It was a classic luck driven career year. Apparently Jocketty's idea of a solution is relying on good luck.
Tavares is no better a solution than Hopper; He just costs more. Now, it's completely possible that Tavares manages to provide positive value. It just makes very little sense to rely on it -- particularly when doing so likely robs opportunity from somebody with a much higher ceiling and a much lower cost.