Originally Posted by Raisor
As it stands right now, even assuming that the Reds find a LF that can create 90-100 runs, the team will need to have a RA of about 600 to make the playoffs.
If the team winds up with Jerry Hairston in LF, then they'll need to have a RA of about 550.
Volquez, Harrang, Cueto are good, but...
Yup, that's essentially the point. Sadly, many other people around here just don't comprehend this.
Right now we have two avenues to the playoffs:
1) Two or more hitters just absolutely go off and perform WELL above their expectations. The most likely hitters to do just that are Bruce, Votto, and Encarnacion - they're probably the only hitters even remotely capable of doing that. Dickerson would probably fit that group too (if he even plays). Still, the probability of the Reds having two guys do that just should not be expected. Even if this criteria is achieved, the pitching staff needs to at least be "good" or better.
2) The pitching staff is DOMINANT. Not merely good, but DOMINANT. We're talking three Reds pitchers in the All-Star game and the 2009 NL Cy Young Award winner on this staff dominant. The pitching staff would have to allow fewer than 650 runs. To put that in perspective, the Dodgers were the only NL team to allow fewer than 650 runs (648), and they play in a pitcher's park. We'd have to allow under 650 with half our games in GABP.
Neither one of these scenarios is likely, which also means that the playoffs aren't likely either.
The Lost Decade strikes again.