Originally Posted by HokieRed
I'm very hopeful about our pitching staff, but to be more realistic, our getting better than league average means Harang's recovery, Cueto's improvement, Bronson's staying about even, Volquez's not regressing, and solving the dilemma of the fifth starter (lack of which is why we got a lot of last year's suckitude).
Go down the list you just made.
Harang's recovery: 3.75 ERA
Cueto's improvement: 4.00 ERA
Bronson staying even: 4.75 ERA
Volquez not regressing: 3.25 ERA
Solving the fifth starter dilemma: 4.75 ERA
Average those five ERAs (a little inaccurate since in reality your top pitchers throw more innings thus should be weighted more, but it's just an estimate): 4.10 ERA from the rotation. League average starter has a 4.41 ERA. If all those things you mentioned come true, the Reds won't have a league average rotation, they'll have a very good rotation. Of course, all those things happening are unlikely - but we shouldn't act like the Reds need all of them to happen to have a solid rotation.