Originally Posted by dougdirt
Yes, there are pitch counts in the WBC.
There are indeed. But that wasn't the issue Silver found with the starters having problems from back in 2006 (relievers don't seem to have had the same problems as starters did--so that data is good for the Cordero part of this, for what it's worth). Go read Silver's piece and consider again how much of this team's success is hinging on two guys being fed to this particular experiment. The numbers for starters who pitched in the WBC in 2006 to start the season were horrible. In every sense. Despite pitch counts. Silver's guess as to why makes some sense to me. And I don't think the Reds, particularly with the Dusty, are all that enlightenend enough to study that data and make some early season allowances for the disruption to Volquez and Cueto's schedules. I hope I am wrong, but I really hate this for those two. And, yes, the data is limited to the 2006 experiment, but it IS data, and it is folly to ignore it, or simply close our eyes and hope that it will be different in 2009. The Reds should be affirmitively considering how to incorporate Volquez and Cueto back into routine following the month-long disruption to same, and doing everything they can minimize the danger to the start of the season. I really hope they are, but am not holding my breath.
Seriously, go back and read that Silver piece. It isn't so much an injury issue with the extra work (although I am not a fan of the extra high effort innings that early in the spring) as it is a disruption of routine. Regardless, LOOK at those numbers for 2006. And look at the names of those having issues. And if the Reds have Volquez and Cueto come out of the gate with ERAs around six for the first month and a half, it is going to be a LONG year. In a perfect world, I wouldn't chance it.