Re: Baseball America's Top Ten Reds prospects
I think the real danger is putting too much credibility into the lists. They are fun to read, but Baseball America has no scouts. They simply compile opinions and try to reach a consensus. Projecting what a minor league player will do several years into the future is a very difficult thing. Geez, the Reds are not even able to predict what their own players will do THAT season. I had a key member of the Reds organization tell me late last March that Brandon Menchaca would be an all-star. He hit .176. How long did it take them to figure out that Jeremy Horst could get hitters out? There was debate within the organization as to whether he could even be a starter, and then he becomes a starter and dominates the league. So while I enjoy reading their opinions, the mistake is to assume that because they say Homer Bailey or Gookie Dawkins is a future star, then he will be. Or someone else won't be. Remember that in 2008, Daryl Thompson didn't even crack their top 30, and he was starting games in the big leagues before the all-star break.