Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
That BA list is pretty bad, IMO.
Maybe some of the Reds players you listed are going to pan out better than the guys listed above them, but it's not like the lower-rated Reds players are considered hot prospects anywhere else.
I'd categorize most of the guys you listed (everyone except Frazier) as players who are in the need-to-prove-something category.
Lotzkar's thrown 66.2 IP as a pro. He's young. He's a bit wild. He had some health issues last year. He's a good talent, but not an overwhelming one. I get why he's not on the RHP list.
Thompson's not blessed with much in the way of stuff. He's envisioned as a possible #4 starter. Guys like that sometime pan out better than expected, but, again, I get why he's not considered a particularly compelling prospect.
Soto's got defensive and plate patience issues. I'd rank him higher on that 3B list, but there is a question as to whether he will be a 3B in the future and I suspect that causes the BA folks to rank him a bit cautiously.
Roenicke probably took a ding because he didn't work enough as a closer in AAA. Stewart had some control issues in the FSL, but I could see him jumping onto that list with a good 2009.
Stubbs' lack of power is a concern. I suspect what scouts are waiting to see is how well he maintains his BA this season. If he's not going to have a lot of punch at the plate, he's going to need a decent BA. On top of that, Baseball America tends to be guided by perceived ceiling. What happened to Stubbs in 2008 was that his ceiling came down while he advanced the case for him being a steady player. I argue the 2nd one is more important in Stubbs' case since his ceiling was always misidentified and the primary concern with him is whether he can be a steady player, but if he progresses along his current track, it's going to require scouts to recalibrate their perception of the guy.
What would have been cool in the BA list is a tools ranking matrix so that you could see the relative strengths of the prospects on those lists.
The takeaway, for me at least, is this needs to be a statement year for a lot of the Reds' top prospects. Having something to prove can be a good thing. It's a motivator. For us and the organization, it's a signal not to be smug. For instance, Devin Mesoraco is not considered a top 25 catching prospect and, ath this juncture, it makes sense for the Reds not to count on him like he's some sort of sure thing.
The one guy who might be most interesting is Valaika. Where would he rank on the 2B list?