Re: John Dewan - Defense worth 50% of offense
There's an important distinction to be made here.
A run prevented is "worth" just as much as a run scored scored when it comes to winning baseball games. And without dollar values put against offensive and defensive production, it's hard to say which costs more.
Rather, the point Dewan is making is that there is more room for variance when it comes to offense than when it comes to defense. A great offense puts you further ahead of the pack than a great defense. A poor offense leaves you further behind than a poor defense. Take an elite offensive player at a position who gives you replacement defense and he's doing significantly more to help your team win than the elite defender who is replacement level defensively. Hanley Ramirez >> Omar Vizquel. It's not really news.
The 2:1 ratio is interesting, but I'm not sure what he would have us do with it. The real trick comes in figuring out how you acquire each. How much does a run prevented cost compared to a run scored? If you find out that a run prevented only costs $200k and a run scored costs $500k, that's something you can make decisions with.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-13-2009 at 08:35 PM.