Re: Nice series of articles from John Erardi
Well without all the statistical analysis that's pretty much how I see things also. I have outlined a couple times that we have to improve on defense, pitch like we expect too, and get some late game timely hits. The baserunning issue I knew needed to improve but wasn't quite sure how to quantify it.
FWIW I see the 5th spot improving to between a 5.00 and 5.50 era at worst. I see Cueto slashing his BB's a bit but I doubt he cuts his HR's much. Harang (even if he has slipped) will be better than last year. I think the defense will indeed be the biggest improvement on the field and expect it to come close to what we need it to be. The offense does have one thing going for it, the divisions pitching (especially the bullpens) aren't exactly the Nasty Boys and their likely aggression vs. that pitching could result in some luck towards the end of games. That aggression could (and mostly will) also work against them but I expect that to be a bigger problem later in the season.
I kind of expect a big breakout from Bruce, but I happen to feel the opposite of most on EE. I think EE has a rough season and I'll say it again I'm not so sure his increased discipline last year was a result of patience but perhaps moreso indecision/good fortune (not all his BB's but a good handfull of them). The thing that worries me most at this point is that the bullpen won't be as good as last years version. Call it a gut instinct but I have feeling age, injuries and overall ineffectiveness might hurt us.
Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 04-03-2009 at 07:16 PM.