Originally Posted by Kc61
Reason 1 - Francisco played at A plus ball at age 21. He's not yet 22 and firmly in AA. He won't be 22 until late June. He has plenty of time to develop better discipline.
Reason 2 - Francisco has a lifetime slugging percentage of .467 and last year - in a pitcher's league - it was .496 in a full season of at bats. That's more than an interesting tool.
Reason 3 - He made Baseball America's all Winter League team with .360/.419/.665 in 161 at bats. Yes, it's Winter League, but the numbers are not shabby. And he hit 12 homers in regular play and 6 more in the playoffs.
This kid is a powerhouse. There is a chance he'll fail if he can't become more patient but his upside is incredible.
Counterargument 1: Most of the players on that list were in in A/A+ ball around the ages of 21-23. I'd have to go back and look at the list again to be certain, though.
And, if that's your argument -- that it's a skill that Francisco is going to develop -- why on earth are you pushing him up the ladder and hoping the skill manifests against better competition? There's no shame in repeating high-A ball -- several of the players on that list did. If the goal is to develop a skill, why push when he's already a little ahead of the age-level curve to begin with?
The list doesn't lie -- very few 3bs advance to AA without that skill (OBP) in their back-pocket already. Why should we believe Francisco will succeed swimming against that stream.
Counterargument 2: His SLG is fantastic, and his raw power appears prodigious. It doesn't negate the fact that, if his OBP doesn't improve significantly, he'll NEED to SLG in the .475+ range if he's going to be even an average offensive corner infielder.
Counterargument 3: His winter-league numbers were good, but if I recall, the winter league numbers tended to skew heavily in favor of offense. I really hope they're a sign of things to come, but there is a full A-ball and a full high A-ball season that both say Francisco isn't a .400+ OBP player, especially since that .400 OBP was driven heavily by the unsustainable .360 BA.
I just don't see it from Francisco. Power is a good thing, but even power can't save an out-machine.