Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor
I figure this team is good for about 76 wins.
Anything more would require a giant leap forward for Jay Bruce, a career year from Willy Taveras, a breakout season from Edwin Encarnacion, and at least one major midseason acquisition.
(And, hot damn -- I never looked back to last year's prediction thread. I hit dead-on with my guess.)
Well that's just the thing isn't it, you have to figure the unbiased odds of the likelihood of any of those things actually happening. And figure the likelihood of most other guys having a similiar year as last. I happen to think that the pitching is improved (especially that 5th hole) and the defense is as well. I also like the bench a bit better also.
I think we are in for an improvement of up to 3-5 games without a big explosion by someone. However I expect an explosion of sorts from Jay Bruce which it's hopefully not wasted by sandwiching him between BP (if he hits into a lot of DP's) and Edwin (with his amazing inconsistency).
I'll split the difference and call it a 78 win team with a ceiling of about 81-82 wins unless there is some major addition to the club at some point.