Re: Who will have the better career...Votto or Bruce?
To my mind, the best predictor of long-term success is BB/K ratio. (Note that # of Ks doesn't matter) Votto throughout his career has a much better BB/K ratio than Bruce. This means in general he gets better at bats than Bruce does. I think Bruce hits for more power, but he'll wind up with a career arc similar to a Geoff Jenkins or Jeromy Burnitz while Votto will be along the lines of a J.T. Snow or (dating myself) Wally Joyner or even Will Clark.
Sabermetrics can be boiled down to this simple truism: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.