Originally Posted by RedsManRick
So, if Willy Taveras is truly a .330 OBP hitter, we would expect him to put up a .330 OBP moving forward, regardless of what he's done in the last few weeks. "Due" is true, but only to the extent that we should expect a player to perform as his true level of ability moving forward rather than to continue to slump. There should be no expectation of a hot streak to balance things out.
If Wily Taveras is a true .330 OBP player why would his OBP average be hovering around the .300 mark? I do see your point with the Gamblers Fallacy bu there are too many variables with a baseball player than somewhat fixed variables in Gambling.
There is no such thing as a "true" anything in sports. Averages in baseball aren't static, they are constantly moving. There are peaks and valleys in a given season. At time a player is hot and playing above his average, at others he is cold and playing below his average. Once you get enough at bats or a big enough sample size the average will regress to its mean.