Originally Posted by RedsManRick
So, why is Taveras' OBP hovering around .300? Because it is -- that's the sum of his performances this far. What you might call "streakiness" is exactly what we would expect to see if it was all happening randomly. If Taveras is a .330 OBP guy, there will be times when he goes 0-20 and times when he goes 10-20. He's not really shifting his skills from a great player to a bad one and back. He's just experiencing streaks in his results. Just like there will be times when you roll 3 6's in a roll. It doesn't mean you went through a period of being skilled at rolling 6's.
Streaks happen. Wild shifts in performance are expected over small samples -- and 200 at bats is a small sample in baseball. But they don't imply a wild shift in ability. Willy Taveras' most likely performance moving forward is the one based on his skill level -- a .330 OBP. He could be better than that moving forward. He could be worse than that moving forward. But .330 is the most likely. That estimation is based on his skill level, which doesn't change simply because he's got a .300 OBP so far this season.
RMR you are complicating this. OBP is an average correct? To say that Taveras is a .330 OBPer is somewhat incorrect to me. Basically when all is said and done the middle point of Taveras OBP is .330.
IMO you could take all different data points and date ranges and come up with all different kinds of answers. If you believe that over the course of a season WT will have a .330 OBP then logic would suggest that he is going to improve on his current statistics, baring an unknown outside factor, from now to the end of the season.
Let me ask you this. I am going to flip a quarter 1000 times. At the start I ask you how many times heads will come up, within a margin of +/-10. What would your answer be? Logic would say 500 would be the choice. Now lets assume that after 200 flips it is heads 110 tails 90. If you were give a chance to change, would you? Or would you still stick the fact that the variances will even out?