Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?
Originally Posted by bucksfan2
RMR you are complicating this. OBP is an average correct? To say that Taveras is a .330 OBPer is somewhat incorrect to me. Basically when all is said and done the middle point of Taveras OBP is .330.
IMO you could take all different data points and date ranges and come up with all different kinds of answers. If you believe that over the course of a season WT will have a .330 OBP then logic would suggest that he is going to improve on his current statistics, baring an unknown outside factor, from now to the end of the season.
Let me ask you this. I am going to flip a quarter 1000 times. At the start I ask you how many times heads will come up, within a margin of +/-10. What would your answer be? Logic would say 500 would be the choice. Now lets assume that after 200 flips it is heads 110 tails 90. If you were give a chance to change, would you? Or would you still stick the fact that the variances will even out?
I'd say the best bet is that the flip will come up heads 400 times out of the next 800 unless there was a reason the coin flip wasn't honest. If the next 200 flips also resulted in roughly 110 heads, i'd adjust my assessment and assume the coin isn't honest (i.e. the true expectation of the outcome isn't 50:50)
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner