Re: Willy Taveras or Chris Dickerson in CF?
Originally Posted by TheNext44
I understand your point, now. You were working under the assumption that Taveras' skill level is fixed, and I was working under the assumption that his OBP is fixed.
Obviously, neither is the case, since nothing in human dynamics is fixed like it is with a coin flip. I guess the next step is to discuss the relationship between a players skill level and his actual numbers, but I gotta go. Maybe later?
Thanks for the lively, informative discussion. I know I enjoyed it
It's fixed in the sense that the estimate of his true skill is fixed over a projection sample. There are obviously developmental curves, aging curves and injuries etc. Those effects are largely built into the projection of his true skill. Also the estimate of a player's true skill is constantly effected by new performance data.
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