Originally Posted by Benihana
Great post mth123, I agree with almost all of it.
The only places where I might take issue are as follows:
First, I would prefer not to deal Todd Frazier, as I think he is the likely 3B for the next 5+ years. I would also prefer to hang onto Soto if possible, but like almost everyone else he could definitely be had in the right deal.
I also agree that the Reds should probably trade Stubbs or Heisey, but my guess is Heisey goes between the two and I'm fine with that. Now would be a great time to sell high on Heisey.
I would target a LF (preferably one that hits righty but not mandatory) and a young SS. With the 3B's in the pipeline, I don't think that position needs to be upgraded for the long term- unless of course they believe Frazier is a LF and not a 3B. I would also like to see if Ryan Hanigan continues to produce at his current level all year. If so, that may take care of the backstop problem for next year, although finding a backup would be necessary.
But other than these minor quibbles, I think your analysis is spot-on and couldn't agree more.
So what could a Stubbs or Heisey, Roenicke, Owings, Valaika and Francisco package bring back? I'd think that would interest a lot of teams. The A's might like Stubbs OBP, Roenicke's stuff, Valaika's utility and may be creative enough to try Owings as a Pitcher/DH combo who would have a lot more value than the normal 5th starter or part time DH. The A's are 8 games back in last place and behind a bunch of teams in the wild card, and while I'm not one of the many that are clamoring for a rental of Holiday, the A's may be the most likely team to value what the Reds have to offer. I wouldn't deal Bailey, Wood, or Frazier for a rental, but given the positive impact it may have on Bruce and Votto, parting with Stubbs, Owings, Valaika and Roenicke wouldn't bother me at all.
Stubbs, Owings, Vailaka and Roenicke for Holiday. Heisey moves to AAA, Volquez takes Owings spot with Maloney staying in the rotation and moving Roenicke clears a bit of the logjam in the pen.
Dealing young pitching like Roenicke and Owings is a little scary, but youth is relative and Roenicke is 27 in August and Owings will be 27 in September. Bailey and Ramirez are still in AAA for depth with Wood, Stewart, Jordan Smith, hopefully Mike Leake and even the suddenly possible James Avery at AA. Scott Carroll is back, along with Jeremy Horst and even filler arms like Jukich, Lecure and Smit to provide depth. In the pen there is still Manuel, Viola, Ondrusek, Watson, and overlooked guys like Ramon Geronimo, Ruben Medina and the still young Phil Valiquette. For next season the system should have Darryl Thompson, Dallas Buck, Bill Bray and Kyle Lotzkar to add to the mix. This team can spare an arm or two, especially when there are younger, better ones to backfill. The question is really whether the arms we'd like to deal would really get anything back.