Originally Posted by mth123
I'm not convinced JoJo.
In 2006 David Weathers Had a 6.11 K/9, a 4.15 BB/9. His BABIP was .237. His FIP was 5.37 while his ERA was 3.54. He was fairly dominant in the second half. After the season, I was all over this board proclaiming that he was not going to repeat and it was all BABIP. The Reds signed him and many (including me) were predicting doom.
In 2007, Weathers K/9 dropped down to 5.56 while his walks/9 improved to 3.13 and his HR/9 really improved to .46. His BABIP was a still low .269. His ERA was 3.59 while his FIP suggested 3.91. This time he had a low HR/FB rate of 3.8% so again, after the season I was with the group that was against the Reds retaining him and predicting doom.
In 2008, Weathers stats were virtually the same with a 5.97 K/9, a 3.89 BB/9 and a .78 HR/9. His BABIP was .319 and his HR/FB rate was 8.2%. His ERA was a slightly better 3.25 even though his BABIP took a big jump along with his HR rate. His FIP was 4.36. After '08, I gave up. I think Weathers has a higher than normal ability to control batted balls and just isn't a guy who can be captured by the numbers. I gave up predicting gloom and doom and accept that he's OK out there.
So far in 2009, his K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 are all in similar territory. His BABIP is again low at .227 as is his HR/FB rate at 5.4%. His ERA is at 2.76 and his FIP is 4.05. Those BABIP, HR/FB and FIP numbers would suggest a negative correction is around the corner, but it never seems to happen with this guy.
If the Reds are waving the white flag on 2009, then Weathers should be the first to go. The team has lots of young pen arms to sort through and Weathers probably will bring something back. But, if the team intends to continue competing, Weathers should stay until the predictions become reality. The predictions just aren't ever right with him.
Here's really why I'm such a Weathers agnostic (BTW, I think Weathers is actually a nice guy and likely a good influence in the club):
His peripherals are below average for the pen. Well, they're below average for a major league pitcher, period.
His "luck metrics" (or randomness metrics if one prefers; LOB%, HR/FB, BABIP) are screaming in that they have all been significantly better than his career norms but not in a consistent pattern belying an underlying skill that might be "controlling" them.
Finally, turning off the computer and using the eyes also reveals a guy that is less than inspiring.
He's the perfect storm.... and I'm very hesitant to believe that he's weathered it by possessing a skill that is subtle enough to escape the numbers and the eyes when there is an explanation (randomness).
Like I said, it's great that he's given the Reds innings. It's not so great that the Reds couldn't figure out another way.