Originally Posted by GIDP
there is no way we dont offer Burton arbitration if hes eligible. Even with the good years he had we still isnt going to be getting that much money. Plus its not like we have relievers piling up to replace him now that we traded Manuel, Josh and Zach.
Arbitration salaries are usually based on the last three years of service. They factor things like injuries, but it mostly goes by comparisons based on the last three years of service. Remember, it is common for players going through arbitration to get more than they would as free agents. That is why so many teams non-tender or don't offer arbitration these days.
Here are Burton's numbers for his three years of service:
9-3 3.65 ERA 7.8 K/9 1.88 K/BB 1.39 WHIP
Those numbers should get him around $3.5-$4M for next season. If they factor in last year, and his being sent down, at wost he gets $2.5-$3M. No way the Reds risk that on Burton for next year.
He can easily be replaced for around $1M. Now, they might tell him that, and that if they don't tender him a contract, that is all he will get as a free agent, and maybe he signs for around that, avoiding arbitration. But they are not going to offer him arbitration.