Originally Posted by dougdirt
Just wanted to add this chart I just made. I went back to 1960 all the way through last year and took every player with 300 at bats in a season. I then broke them down by K/BB in groupings of 0.50's. I then arranged those groupings by OPS and figured out the % of batters in that group who went on to OPS .800 or higher in the season that they posted that K/BB.
Juan on the season is in that last group at 4.60. Over his hot streak he is only at 3.23. That is an area where he could have success, but the odds still are less than 20% that he could OPS .800. The 4.60+ he has been at for his entire career isn't.
Doug, I do want to commend you on the graph. It's interesting, for sure.
What I wonder, though, is could you find the same results by simply using walk rates and comparing that to OPS over 800? I imagine you'll find a very similar graph. If so, then the "K" part of the equation is, if not meaningless, a very small portion of what's fueling the success.
I find K/BB to be important. However, I think the K aspect is only important under extreme conditions one way or another. If a player hovers around an average K-rate, it's the walks then that concern me.
In this case, I simply think the K/BB ratio tells us what we already know: that Francisco needs to walk more.