Originally Posted by dougdirt
Just wanted to add this chart I just made. I went back to 1960 all the way through last year and took every player with 300 at bats in a season. I then broke them down by K/BB in groupings of 0.50's. I then arranged those groupings by OPS and figured out the % of batters in that group who went on to OPS .800 or higher in the season that they posted that K/BB.
Juan on the season is in that last group at 4.60. Over his hot streak he is only at 3.23. That is an area where he could have success, but the odds still are less than 20% that he could OPS .800. The 4.60+ he has been at for his entire career isn't.
Doug, the chart you made doesn't tell me very much about Francisco. The group of hitters included in the high K/BB ratio group likely includes a very high percentage of guys who lack JF's hitting skills entirely. If you include slap hitters in your high K/BB group, of course they will hardly ever have a high OPS. It's apples and oranges unless you refine your groups and control for other factors.
Further, Doug, JF's strikeout rate the last two years has been modest for a power hitter. He just doesn't strike out that much for a long ball guy. If 19 percent is the correct rate, just look at the big power guys they almost all are higher than that. There have been years when major power hitters fan 25 percent of official at bats and are still productive.
JF does have an issue on walks, but -- and here Dusty's old school analysis is correct -- JF seems to have the ability to convert bad pitches to successful outcomes. He obviously swings at too many bad pitches (he doesn't walk) yet his batting average and RBIs are always very reasonable. He left AA at .281 or thereabouts. He's hitting the bad ball successfully more often than others do, so far.
Some of these analyses just emphasize the negative and ignore the positive. Focus on K and BB rates are fine, but in analyzing them you need to look at the positives and weigh them. There are other prospects, like Soto, who strikeout a bit less, but their production so far pales in comparison to what JF has generated.