Originally Posted by Kc61
Ryan Howard has a high K/BB rate. So do Adam Jones, Alex Rios, Mark Reynolds, Freddie Sanchez.
And aren't Jose Guillen and Kevin Kouzmanoff -- with very high K/BB rates -- good players having very successful careers? Jose Guillen may be a good comp for Francisco. I'd take a young Jose Guillen on this team over the group we have out there now.
K/BB rate - standing alone - isn't a determinative stat, nor is it necessarily a good predictor. Keep in mind, JF is still a developing player so we don't even know what his major league K/BB rate will be once he settles in at the big league level.
Jose Guillen has slugged .500 once in his entire career and it came the year he spent in GABP. He was only over .470 two other times in his career. Guillen also has a career OPS of .764 for a corner outfielder. Kevin Kouzmanoff plays in SD so his OPS is tougher to gauge, but his OPS+ is league average for his career. Neither of those guys would be considered 'very successful' by my definition.
And you are right that we won't know his K/BB as a major leaguer, but why would we believe its going to dramatically improve over what he has shown as a minor leaguer? That just doesn't happen often. He has 2 years left to really hone in the strikezone. If he continues down the 4-1 path, there isn't much hope for him being a good major league hitter.