Originally Posted by dougdirt
Jose Guillen has slugged .500 once in his entire career and it came the year he spent in GABP. He was only over .470 two other times in his career. Guillen also has a career OPS of .764 for a corner outfielder. Kevin Kouzmanoff plays in SD so his OPS is tougher to gauge, but his OPS+ is league average for his career. Neither of those guys would be considered 'very successful' by my definition.
And you are right that we won't know his K/BB as a major leaguer, but why would we believe its going to dramatically improve over what he has shown as a minor leaguer? That just doesn't happen often. He has 2 years left to really hone in the strikezone. If he continues down the 4-1 path, there isn't much hope for him being a good major league hitter.
Guillen in his prime or Kouzmanoff would be upgrades on the Reds, unless you are comparing Kouz with Rolen in his prime at third base. Guillen did hit at GABP and if Francisco is his comp, hopefully Francisco will too. These guys are solid starting players in the major leagues and JF should be at least that. We'll see how many others on the Reds top ten list ever do as well.
As for improvement at the major league level over the minors, JF is still a just turned 22 year old developing in certain ways and he certainly could be a better major league hitter than he has shown to date. He has several years of maturation left to accomplish that.
It's interesting how you view JF as having hit a ceiling at age 22 in that certain tendencies, you say, aren't overcome. Yet Drew Stubbs is a much older prospect with a .726 OPS and you see all kinds of growth coming with his ultimate advancement to the big leagues.