Originally Posted by alexad
68 steals last year. 68 steals. 68 steals. We need someone to get on base and steal bases. Your lead off hitter is suppose to get on base and steal bases. His on base percentage may not be awesome, but come on, we have cried about not having a player with speed to play center field and lead off.
I'm just going to keep posting this until it sinks in.
NAME YEAR PA OBP SLG OUTR SB% VORP EqA RAR RAP
Willy Taveras 2008 538 .308 .296 .67658 90.7% 2.0 .238 4.2 -19.2
Willy Taveras 2007 408 .367 .382 .62745 78.6% 16.4 .261 12.5 -1.8
Willy Taveras 2006 587 .333 .338 .66099 78.6% 5.1 .242 6.9 -12.4
Willy Taveras 2005 635 .325 .341 .65984 75.6% 4.9 .242 7.3 -15.7
Please note that while in 2008, the year he had 68 stolen bases, he scored 19 less runs than the average CF (RAP). He barely outscored a replacement level player (RAR). Most telling is his EqA which is sort of like batting average combined with base-running. All those stolen bases boosted his EqA all the way up to .238. Keeping in mind that .260 is considered average his number is not all that impressive. All those stolen bases did absolutely nothing to boost his ability to score runs.
Please further note that he stole 33 bases the previous three years. So I wouldn't count on him cranking out 68 SB's every year.
Even more critical is the success rate off all those stolen bases. In the three previous years his success rate barely hovered above 75%, the minimum level for stolen bases to be considered effective.
Please also further note that he's never once scored more runs than an average CF (RAP). He's only had an out rate below 65% once in four years. He's only scored significantly more runs than a replacement level player once in four years.
I think most people here would love to have a speed-demon who is a wrecking crew on the base-paths. I would. But you have to have a guy who can actually get to first base to be able to steal. And you have to have a guy who consistently steals at a 80 to 90% success rate to amount to anything.
Willy T does neither of those things.