Originally Posted by Kc61
The missing link in Cooper's analysis and the "trade him now" analyis is that JF just turned 22 in June, is already doing well at AAA, and has two more minor league seasons if he needs them.
I don't see any focus in Cooper's analysis - or your conclusion - that takes into account the stage of Francisco's development.
I happen to disagree with the conclusion. I think JF is an unusually gifted talent who has achieved a great deal with an approach that is less than optimal. You guys are all essentially giving up on him at the age of 22, a young 22.
Put aside the hype for a minute. Look at Jay Bruce's approach this year. The upper cutting and all the pop flies. Look at his OBP. I don't see people writing him off. His approach has flaws too, but people give him the time he deserves.
The other point is that Francisco has steadily improved. His K rate went way down as he hit the higher levels. All the talk that he Ks a lot is untrue. For a power hitter, his K rate is not high. Yes, in his first AAA games he fanned quite a bit, but it's a brand new level for him.
I think Francisco will be far more valuable in a year. Either as one of AAA's dominant hitters, or as a raw member of the Reds with enormous potential. My only concern about him is defensive position.
He may be 22 but he's already been on the 40 man for a year. Another 2 years on the 40 (or more) before he gets a taste, I doubt that happens. And then he has to go thru waivers if he can't hack it where you may lose him for nothing. If he was legitimately a good defender and wasn't gaining size/weight like he has then I'd agree keeping him and continuing to see if you can help him make the neccessary strides. But the distance he has to go is pretty far to make it so I trade him with some peak value. Unfortunately he may start sliding before we can get to that point as I'm not sure Dusty (who does seem to have to much input on minor leaguers) and Walt haven't yet seen enough to agree.