Originally Posted by RedsManRick
Why, when you flip a coin, does it not alternate heads and tails perfectly? It's called variance and it's part of every event in life. Monthly splits are essentially random, centered around the players true level of ability.
Yes, there will be patterns if you look hard enough, but those patterns are not predictive over time. In other words, how well a guy has performed in Augusts past doesn't tell you anything insightful about how he's likely to perform next August.
I am not sure how to write or say this. But, is there a way to adjust players for that variance to maybe a more consistent core number? Kind of like saying for player X who OPS one month .1000, another month OPS .875, another month .925, then another month .773 and so forth. Is there a way to find out what they really are as a day to day player adjusted OPS? Or is that getting out there on the bizarre walk?