Re: I was wrong about...(minor league edition)
Like a majority of RZers, I tend to rely on statistics. Over the years, I have learned the limitations in doing this.
Some players regress after a promotion then figure the league out. I see this as a positive. Buchholz and Valaika are showing late improvement that bodes well for next year. Alonso took some time to figure out A+, then he took off. At the moment, I think Stubbs is going through this at the ML level. He is unable to draw the number of walks he did from AAA pitchers. Catchers don't seem to progress offensively as quickly as others because the position is physically demanding and difficult to learn.
On the other hand, some players mash at lower levels, then stagnate. My sense is they are unable to make changes in their game needed to counter better pitchers. Batters may have to shorten their stroke, learn to recognize pitchers sooner, and plug the holes in their strike zones. Pitchers may need to add a pitch, refine their control, set up the batters.
All of these things take time and the course of progress is neither uniform nor predictable.