Re: Drew Stubbs
I really like the Curtis Granderson comp I saw mentioned earlier. Mike Cameron is of course the other one that makes all kinds of sense, right down to the build. What's interesting about both of those guys is that they didn't become every day players until their mid 20's, like Stubbs. It would seem from that very small sample that this type of player takes a little longer to mature.
The strike out rate isn't great, but it doesn't overly concern me when you consider the following players strike out more than 25% of the time: Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Jason Bay, Brad Hawpe, David Wright, Kevin Youkilis. The real trick, and this applies to Cameron and Gradnerson too, is keeping that walk rate north of 10% to keep the OBP up.
I do think the power we're seeing from him is real -- or perhaps more accurately, not a fluke. I don't think he's going to hit 35 HR like he's on pace for, but 25 during his peak wouldn't surprise me, with 15-20 on a regular basis. This isn't like Jeff Keppinger hitting 2 HR in a game. Stubbs has legitimate power even if he's not fully learned how to put it use regularly yet.
Long term, I think we'll see something like .260/.350/.450, 15-20 homers and 30-40 steals with a good amount of that slugging coming from doubles and triples and with a good number of infield singles to keep his average in a respectable place.
Obviously this is all upside sort of talk and I fully realize that it's possible pitchers exploit holes in his swing and he's never able to adjust. But I like what I'm seeing so far and would be happy to eat crow about my historical negativity towards him...
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.