Originally Posted by lollipopcurve
Like "he has power" vs. "he does not have power." What's your take? I think you can make the claim that he does have power, based on 123 ABs, with absolute certainty.
I think one can say he can hit the ball far enough for it to clear the fence. I don't think one can say he'll be able to do it frequently enough to maintain an OPS=.760 given the sample size associated with his tenure as a Red. That kind of speaks to the heart of the issue doesn't it?
Truthfully, with Stubbs, the only thing that will solve this debate is more data. For that, we'll need some patience.
Right now, I think where we're at is someplace like this: Stubbs' minor league numbers suggest he will have trouble hitting for power. It's however possible that Stubbs can develop consistent power in the future. Whether he will increase his power and to what degree an increase in power is manifested, is really anyone's guess.
If the argument is what level of offensive production is necessary for Stubbs to be an everyday player, that's an entirely different question and one that is probably easier to guesstimate. For instance, if he is a +10 defender in center field (which would make him a top 5 defender at the position) he could probably OPS roughly .700 (wOBA= .310ish) and still be an average major leaguer (i.e. be good enough to be a regular). If one thinks he'd only be a +5 defender, than he'd need to post a wOBA=.320 (OPS=.740ish).
In my mind, there is a pretty good chance that Stubbs can become (maybe already is) and average major league player. Whether he will develop that additional 1.5 to 22 WAR a year above being an average player however remains the great uncertainty....
An OPS of .760 probably means he's a 4 WAR player (I'm in the crowd that thinks Stubbs might be a +10 glove). That would be huge (and basically mean he is a reasonable facsimile of Mike Cameron from a value standpoint).