Re: The Official 'Who Do We Protect from the Rule Five Draft?' Thread
UKFlounder, I don't know if they will protect Wells or not and I am not suggesting they will without more information that I don't have access to. But I can't really agree with your logic.
Lets look at Wells. He was a decent starting pitcher with pretty good stuff at one time, but has not been worth a darn for five years. This year, for whatever reason, he has provided some reason for optimism. If you look at Wells' starts, he has been pretty good, especially after the first inning. If you got Dick Pole to speak off the record, you could ask him, "has this guy's stuff returned to where it was five years ago, or is he just throwing slop up there and getting lucky?" The answer to that question would go a long way towards the final decision. I am sure Pole has an opinion.
Second, as far as acquiring other starters, doubtful it happens before the decision on the 40-man has to be made around the first of December.
As far as feeling that younger guys will develop, I don't know. Who? If you were planning on having a young guy in your rotation in April of 2010, wouldn't you be getting a look at him now? Why would you be giving Wells a start every fifth day? That's my point with Travis Wood. Granted again, Maloney has been limited by a blister. But that's it. Why do you think they are giving Wells starts? Or 32-year-old Justin Lehr? If they don't have anyone better now, why do you think they would assume they would have someone better in April? And Wells is 32, not 36 or 37.
As I said in my last post, fifth starters for a small market team are not easy to find. Wells is a cheap option. The Reds gave the combination of Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle 20 starts in 2008 and both had ERAs over 7.00. I would have to think that the odds are stacked against Wells ever becoming a decent starter again. They will have to make that decision based on what they are seeing with his velocity, movement, location, and durability, not necessarily the stats. But he has done enough to at least raise the question.
Last edited by redsof72; 09-25-2009 at 02:48 PM.