Re: Cordero for Upton?
Exactly dan. Taking the Nasty Boys as a case in point, all of those guys were pretty cheap. Myers, 27, was in his first year of arbitration. Charlton, 27 and Dibble 26, were both pre-arb.
I'm not saying we can just give Cordero away and the bullpen won't be worse off. I am saying that unless the Reds decide to spent $40M more than they are spending now, Cordero is a very inefficient use of salary given the value he provides. The guy provides approximately 2% of our overall production (<5% of our IP) and makes 15% of our payroll.
It shouldn't cost you 8 figures to sign a 3 ERA reliever. The Reds are paying for the closer tag and they really cannot afford to do that. The 1990 Reds are a great example, because they built a bullpen out of talented arms that they either developed or traded for while those players were young and cheap.
This isn't about how important a bullpen is on a winning team. It's about how much of your payroll you need to use to get it.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.