Originally Posted by dougdirt
Todd Frazier, Yonder Alonso, Mike Leake Chris Heisey and Travis Wood will all get consideration for all Top 100 lists, with the first three guys making every single one of them. As far as high ceilings go, I will submit Yorman Rodriguez and Billy Hamilton. Yorman you probably know about, but Billy Hamilton was talked about as the best athlete in the entire 2009 draft. Yeah, he is raw, but the kid has an incredibly high ceiling. I think perhaps you have expectations a bit too high based on your comments.
You'll get no argument from me in regards to Alonso or Leake. Both players are high ceiling, potential impact players who are advanced enough to start projecting as major league players. IMHO, they are the only such players in the system.
Frazier has an interesting bat but the way that he has been handled by the organization makes me wonder about his future with the club. Despite the fact that he's been considered a top prospect since being drafted the Reds have been for whatever reason have opted to try moving him all over the diamond rather than letting him settle in and master one postion. What is even more curious is that the Reds have played him sparingly in the position where he seemingly profiles best, 3B. Maybe he can play 3B but I'd be a whole lot more comfortable if the Reds would have recognized that earlier and let him get the reps at the position rather than shuffling him around.
After those three, the talent level in the high minors looks thin. Heisey raked in AA but cooled off in AAA. Francisco raked but his lack of plate discipline and a true position really limit his value. Soto struggled at A+ and there are questions about his ability to stay at 3B. Valaika was awful at AAA. The starting pitching situation is even more bleak. Even after a breakout season Wood profiles as a back of the rotation SP and the drop in K/9 is alarming. Lotzkar and Thopson suffered significant injuries and given their injury trackrecords neither are a sure thing to bounce back.
Yorman Rodriguez and Billy Hamilton were definite bright spots but they're still very early on in their development processes. Ditto for Juan Duran. They're all high ceiling players but it's likely going to be a long time before any of them are going to be able to make an impact on the big league club.