Originally Posted by dougdirt
Possible of course. To be expected for anyone who hasn't done it at the MLB level for several years already though is a bit of a reach.
Those who continue to ignore the lunacy that Francisco put up in AAA and Cincinnati in the BABIP department are going to be very confused and simply don't get that math behind a players stats.
His BABIP combined at those three stops is .423. Its simply unsustainable. Move it to something like .320, which is still likely unreasonably high and he would have hit something to the tune of .292/.350/.570. Great line. But the DWL saw insane numbers across the entire league last year in terms of power. His line in just AAA/MLB with a .320 BABIP is likely more accurate at .274/.322/.504. What if he is just a normal .300 BABIP guy? Then we are looking at something like .260/.310/.490. The kid has lots of power, but his offensive game must be improved still, and by quite a bit. Like noted, he has shown some good signs, but over the long haul we haven't seen it yet.
Oh I definitely agree it's unsustainable. And I was not responding as trying to indicate that I think Francisco will be able to pull off an exceptionally high BABIP. I was merely responding to the Pujols example, for as good as he is, he would not be the threshold for BABIP sustainability if we're looking at high end.
You are absolutely correct: for any player that does not get a lot of infield hits, unless you carry a very, very high LD%, it's not realistic to expect much more than a .310-.325 BABIP.