Originally Posted by Kc61
It's a question of how you view these things. Many of these guys, like Francisco, are quite young.
If you have a fairly static view of things - a guy's stats are a guy's stats and will likely always be his stats - then you probably vote for Frazier or Leake. They have the polish, perhaps the more consistent numbers with fewer negatives.
If you take a more dynamic view - take a young player like Francisco, look at his tremendous ability and factor in his age, also factor in what he showed at AAA and on the Reds and assume some growth - then you'd vote for him, as I will.
I don't think these 2 categories are mutually exclusive. However if you insist then I'd suggest there is a 3rd view, one that combines all of the above. How about Dynatic? The problem with the view of the 2nd category IMO is that you cannot assume a move forward when there are glaring difficiencies. Regardless if they were uncovered at higher levels or not they still remain. Often times a player will look completely fine with no glaring issues until someone figures out what may work, tries it, that then becomes his obvious weakness. Juan proved one thing in 2009, that he can hit at the AA level consistently. His small samples at the next 2 stops have little bearing on the facts. Just as Chris Dickersons' late season surge in '08 didn't give us a clear indication of what to expect moving forward on him, and many others before him as well. History shows that what Juan has done in the minors isn't gonna cut it moving forward. And additionally he must make far greater strides to maintain the numbers. I think we should not only not assume a forward growth but expect a significant dropoff (assuming we expected him to stick at the MLB level).
I think most of RZ would love to be able to believe we could depend on Francisco to do something that no one has ever done. That is, hit well enough to stick at the major league level with little to maybe even no improvement in his historically low K% and BB% totals. He certainly is a bad ball hitter and even those guys (Corey Patterson) have some good streaks in baseball. I think Juan knows deep down he needs to tighten that area of his game up (his recent MLB approach as proof) and if he ever has a legit shot at doing it I don't believe it will be at the major league level.
In a nutshell he's young enough and talented enough to be considered the #1 prospect but when adding in all the other stuff in his and others game his odds are lesser therefore he's in my mind not #1, #2 or #3 currently but he has definitely shown enough to have made a significant jump from last years poll.