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10-16-2009, 06:57 PM   #71
dougdirt
The Boss

Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 33,495
Re: Who is Redszone's #1 prospect?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Kc61 Sorry, I don't see it. If you strikeout too much, it's bad. If you walk too little, it's bad. You can compensate for these tendencies in several ways. But the two do not correlate in my view. A guy can fan 200 times. That's bad. He can compensate several ways. He can compensate by hitting 70 homers. He can compensate by batting .350. He can compensate by walks. But it doesn't have to be by walks. A guy can walk at a very low rate, like Francisco. He can compensate by a very high batting average. By a slew of extra base hits. A low strikeout rate helps, but it is not necessary if other good things happen. Walks and strikeouts are important. But they are not, IMO, strictly related.
Thats the problem, the statistical probability of hitting .350 with 200 strikeouts in a season with 700 plate appearances is astronomical. If that player had 650 plate appearances AND hit 50 HR's with 100 walks to go along with those 200 strikeouts they would still have to have a BABIP of .468 to hit .350. Thats over 50 points higher than anyone in the entire history has ever had over a full season. Its math. It works in baseball extremely well.

Guys don't hit for a high average with lots of strikeouts on a regular basis. Its just not possible because of the lack of balls in play and BABIP working. I ran the math. Here are the results for you to see how the two relate to each other.

Code:
```Strikeout rate = 20% and Walk rate = 4%
PA	AB	H	HR	BB	K	SF	SH	AVG	BABIP	OBP
650	609	165	25	26	130	8	2	.271	.303	.295
650	609	168	27	26	130	8	2	.276	.307	.299
650	609	171	29	26	130	8	2	.281	.310	.304
650	609	173	31	26	130	8	2	.284	.311	.307
650	609	175	33	26	130	8	2	.287	.313	.310
650	609	177	35	26	130	8	2	.291	.314	.313
650	609	179	37	26	130	8	2	.294	.316	.316
650	609	181	39	26	130	8	2	.297	.317	.319
650	609	183	41	26	130	8	2	.300	.318	.323```
Code:
```Strikeout rate = 10% and Walk rate = 4%
PA	AB	H	HR	BB	K	SF	SH	AVG	BABIP	OBP
650	609	183	25	26	65	8	2	.300	.300	.323
650	609	185	27	26	65	8	2	.304	.301	.326
650	609	188	29	26	65	8	2	.309	.304	.330
650	609	191	31	26	65	8	2	.314	.307	.335
650	609	194	33	26	65	8	2	.319	.310	.340
650	609	197	35	26	65	8	2	.323	.313	.344
650	609	200	37	26	65	8	2	.328	.317	.349
650	609	203	39	26	65	8	2	.333	.320	.353
650	609	206	41	26	65	8	2	.338	.323	.358```
Code:
```Strikeout rate = 20% and Walk rate = 7%
PA	AB	H	HR	BB	K	SF	SH	AVG	BABIP	OBP
650	589	158	25	46	130	8	2	.268	.301	.315
650	589	161	27	46	130	8	2	.273	.305	.319
650	589	164	29	46	130	8	2	.278	.308	.324
650	589	166	31	46	130	8	2	.282	.310	.327
650	589	169	33	46	130	8	2	.287	.313	.332
650	589	172	35	46	130	8	2	.292	.317	.336
650	589	174	37	46	130	8	2	.295	.319	.340
650	589	177	39	46	130	8	2	.301	.322	.344
650	589	179	41	46	130	8	2	.304	.324	.347```
It just adds up. The two rates are directly correlated to the AVG and OBP results (along with HR power).
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