Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Your numbers don't indicate progress because of your selection your stats and analysis. For example, look at JF's slugging percentage for the last few years, consider his age, and you'll see a very considerable talent and very considerable production.
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Sure he's talented and had very good production, no one is arguing that. But power alone does not make him major league material. Your suggestion that Juan will somehow hit for a high average at the major league level (and therefore due to his power will produce adequately or better) is an odd notion. Guys who are so talented at making contact and hitting bad balls don't strike out at that high a rate. Basically in a nutshell he'll hammer some pitches just like Wily Mo did, he may even have some nice games, etc. But frankly your theory about him only works if he continues to progress in swinging at less non ideal pitches, sews up any holes he may have (as GOYA suggested he did to some extent in Lou) etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
Your conclusion on K rate doesn't tell the story -- JF's K rate has improved dramatically. It was down from 28.6 percent at Dayton to 19.6 percent at AA this year. The rates then became higher in short stints at AAA and Cinci at year end because it took him awhile (a short while) to adjust to each new level.
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Ok fine I'll concede that he improved from Dayton to Carolina. I'll not concede that it was a foregone conclusion that he was simply adjusting to the new level as that info is inconclusive. At the MLB level he didn't K in his last 6 PA's of his 25, not conclusive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kc61
And on top of everything, once again, there is this static view of this player who has achieved remarkably for a 22 year old. And, unlike WMP, he is a left handed hitter giving him an advantage in most at bats against righty pitching.
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Not once again it just simply hasn't ever changed in my mind. If he had given me a reason to change my mind I would have. If this site has taught me anything it's that you cannot dismiss history and a players peripherals, they are usually a far more true indicator of the real player than most any tool we as fans have to get a reasonably general picture of what kind of player we have. Not his actual production, just too many variables in that type of stuff for a clear picture.
And too me he needs to improve quite a bit to just be similiar to a guy who I have compared him to since I watched him play in Dayton, Tony Batista. In the
Majors he had a career 15.9 K% and a 5.8 BB% for a career line of .251/.299/.453/.752. Batista had a similiar approach and similiar power but with less K's and more BB's. This is a guy who had 4 seasons of 30+ HR's and 30+ doubles and 2 more seasons with at least 20+ dbls. and 25+ HR's. Again he'd have to improve
a great deal to get to this point, a .750 OPS.