Originally Posted by RedsManRick
On a scale of 100, Fransisco or Rodriguez might have a 90 ceiling, but a 40 likelihood. Meanwhile, Frazier is sitting there at 80 and 80. Obviously the numbers are made up to illustrate the point, but that's my approach.
Your method only works with realistic numbers. I don't find these examples to be realistic. Francisco dominated AA, AAA, and did well at Cincy. His likelihood is the same as a 16 year old OPS'ing in the .600s at Rookie ball? I don't find JF's consistent home run, RBI, slugging percentage and extra base hits to be superficial.
What's superficial to me are evaluations praising players based on certain peripherals when the player doesn't show particularly good or consistent production.
Let's face it, it's all subjective. Maybe more than anything, there are opinion leaders who adopt certain philosophies and people tend to buy into them.
IMO, what gets left out too often is actual production. Who has exhibited special abilities in the minor leagues. Lots of talk about walk rates. Not too much about HRs, extra base hits, knocking in runs on a consistent basis, hitting the ball with authority.