Originally Posted by dougdirt
The problem is, Francisco with 45 home runs and his current strikeout rate of 20.5% would lead to an OBP in the .320-.330 range. Of course there just isn't much reason to expect him to hit 45 HR's. If he only hits 35, still a high total, we are looking at a guy who projects to be a .280/.315/.515 hitter. That is a #6 hitter in a decent lineup.
Well, my math tells me that's an .830 OPS, better than any Red not named Joey Votto or Jonny Gomes, And I wouldn't bet a dime that Gomes could do it again over a full season.
And your projection doesn't take into account that he has improved at every level. JF seems to me to be the "real" definition of raw. He's still raw, AND young. I think he'd have a ton of value as a middle of the order hitter with a .330 OBP, and I also think he's learning enough to post that consistently going forward.