Originally Posted by Kc61
Which is exactly the underlying reason for this debate.
If that's all JF becomes -- a .280/.315/.515 hitter -- a sixth hitter in a decent lineup, he is still one of the top three prospects in this system. And of course he could become much more.
I don't know what you expect from most of these guys, but make sure somebody reminds us when Chris Heisey and Todd Frazier enter the Hall of Fame. Or Yorman Rodriguez.
If the Reds still had Cueto, Bailey, Bruce and Votto as prospects, I wouldn't be touting JF so highly. But with this current crop, given his upside and downside, he clearly IMO is one of the top three guys.
Sure, if thats all that he becomes, but the odds aren't good that he becomes even that. We are making an assumption that he not only becomes an above average power hitter in the major leagues despite a terrible plate approach that he also keeps his walk and strikeout rate the same as he did in the minor leagues with a terrible plate approach. I mean honestly, Francisco's most biased backers have him at an .850-.875 OPS, while his detractors see him in the .700's. A guy like Todd Frazier for example projects today, with no improvement, to be a .285/.350/.450 hitter in the major leagues and he plays the same positions as JF and is better at both places. Frazier is easily the better of the two prospects. He is better today. He has no weakness in his game and still has room to grow offensively.