Originally Posted by GOYA
You are willing to throw out a season's worth of stats because a player was on a sustained hot streak at the end of the year.
Cisco was tearing it up at the end of his time in Carolina and continued through Louisville and into Cincy. Can he maintain that level? No, and his full season stats aren't anywhere near what he did the last two months of the season. But those two months are a part of his season. Just like any player's hot streaks.
You really seem biased against Francisco and show a tendancy to interpret data against him.
In doug's defense, we all have our favorites, and ones that we don't particularly care for.
But yeah, he does have a strong bias towards 1st round picks. I'm not even going to bring up he who i cannot mention.
Here are the simple FACTS. In his career, JF hasn't walked much. In the minors, he's offset that somewhat with his power, and decent BA. Doug like to point out his MLB BABIP, saying it is unsustainable. he's right, it isn't. However his 2009 minor league BABIP is only .332, which includes a .312 BABIP at Carolina. And he posted a .818 OPS there, most of which he did as a 21 year old. His OPS rises at each level. His power never seems to be affected. He's reducing his K's, and he had a hot Aug-Sept. But maybe that only applies to SOME players.
For example, say you have a player that has never hit for power anywhere except one stop in low A. Since then, almost no power, but then has a month in the bigs where he hits 7-8 HR's in just under 200 AB's. For some, that would indicate it is just a hot streak, and for others it says he has 15-20 HR potential. The latter is using traditional scouting techniques: body type, scouting scales etc. And that type of evaluation is very important. Until you ignore them to say a player cannot succeed despite the tools, when all his stats trend in the direction you want a young player to go.
All JF has done in his professional career is learn and get better, at the plate if not the field. 25 HR's at Dayton in 2007. 23 at Sarasota in 2008, in the FSL no less. 30 HR's across 3 levels in 2009. That's more HR's than Bruce had in 2008, although Bruce did his at AAA and MLB.
JF is the best power prospect in the system. Better than Frazier, better than Alonso. He hits for a high BA, but yes, i'd like to see him BB more. In 2007, Jay Bruce walked 47 times. In 2008 he walked 45 times. In 2009, limited due to injury, he BB'd 38 times, but that's inline with his career norms. That is twice as many BB's as Francisco, but isn't it funny that Bruce's 2007 and 2008 minor league BABIP's are never mentioned as unsustainable? 2007, .390. 2008, .442.
Why is that?