Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo
Why would they be? He had a .308 Minor league BA, .551 Minor league Slg%, and Walked at nearly a 10% clip.
JF .281 BA, .482 Slg and Walked at a 4% clip. And Jay was even younger than Juan.
Sure Jays #'s were unsustainable, just as Juans are currently. The difference? No one suggesting Jays numbers were sustainable like right now with Juan.
Normalize Bruce's BABIP, and you have a .300ish OBP. But he can overcome it because he is Jay Bruce. I am not saying JF's lack of BB's isn't a problem. I'm saying Bruce's ridiculous BABIP's overshadowed the fact that his BB rate wasn't all that good. He has to hit .300+ for his OBP to be non detrimental.
There isn't a single poster that doesn't want JF to BB more. Some think he can and will be a consistent .830+ OPS bat. How he does that is open to interpretation or guess work.
I think he'll settle in as a 40 BB guy his first year as a MLB player. Notice how I firmly believe he will be one? I think he's the future LF for the Reds personally, possibly by mid 2010, certainly by OD 2011 barring a trade.
I also think he'll mature and have a few seasons of 60BB's. I think he CAN do this. But as long as he can get his BA around .290, he won't hurt the team in the OBP department considering his power. And .290 isn't really a stretch.