Originally Posted by TRF
Normalize Bruce's BABIP, and you have a .300ish OBP. But he can overcome it because he is Jay Bruce. I am not saying JF's lack of BB's isn't a problem. I'm saying Bruce's ridiculous BABIP's overshadowed the fact that his BB rate wasn't all that good. He has to hit .300+ for his OBP to be non detrimental.
There isn't a single poster that doesn't want JF to BB more. Some think he can and will be a consistent .830+ OPS bat. How he does that is open to interpretation or guess work.
I think he'll settle in as a 40 BB guy his first year as a MLB player. Notice how I firmly believe he will be one? I think he's the future LF for the Reds personally, possibly by mid 2010, certainly by OD 2011 barring a trade.
I also think he'll mature and have a few seasons of 60BB's. I think he CAN do this. But as long as he can get his BA around .290, he won't hurt the team in the OBP department considering his power. And .290 isn't really a stretch.
Say what? Jay Bruce's BB rate has never been an issue. He's been right around 10% in the minors and the majors and for his age that's excellent. So you lost me there. Your right about the fact that there isn't a single poster that doesn't want him to BB more. The problem here is some already believe he will and have him penciled in as a near gaurantee. Others of us feel the mountain he has to climb is awful high and he has a long ways to go to get there, and his chances of doing that are a bit slim to say the least. But now what the facts say is we should be quite pessimistic about his chances, yet all this optimism over a couple of short stints in AAA and MLB.